S&P expects new home prices in mainland China's tier-one cities to recover as early as next year

S&P Global expects new home prices in mainland China may bottom out in the third quarter of 2028, while tier-one cities may recover earlier, as early as next year. S&P credit analyst Edward Chan noted that oversupply, unfavourable demographics and high leverage among property developers are the main obstacles to stabilisation of the property market. The report drew on the downturn experience of the property markets in the United States, Japan, Spain and Hong Kong.